2022 Jul. The ICE BofA Move index, which measures bond market volatility today, reached a new high, while the VIX finished the day lower. This is a one-two punch on tech, Ablin said. Mortgage Rates Decrease Slightly. 6 Oct 2022. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Whats on my watch now is Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua. Those members in the minority preferred to increase Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points, to 1.5%. Inflation Rate in the United States averaged 3.28 percent from 1914 until 2022, reaching an all time high of 23.70 percent in June of 1920 and a record low of -15.80 percent in June of 1921. Accessed 11 Oct 2022. The administration accepted only 25,465 refugees in fiscal year 2022 that just ended far fewer than the presidents goal of 125,000. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average, by expenditure category, July 2022 [1982-84=100, unless otherwise noted] Expenditure category Relative importance Jun. Activity was expected to recover as some Covid restrictions had started to be lifted more recently. 3: GDP growth rates in the euro area and in the United States were likely to be marginally stronger in 2022 Q2 than in the May Report, with quarterly rates of 0.3% and 0.8% now expected respectively. The international trade deficit was $323.4 billion, or about 49%, higher than in 2020. Monetary policy was also acting to ensure that longer-term inflation expectations were anchored at the 2% target. Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2021. Census Bureau. The estimated murder rate in 2021 was 6.9 per 100,000 population, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the 6.7 rate in 2020. Away from food and energy, we forecast another solid print for the core CPI index (0.5%), with this measure up 6.5%oya in September (up from 6.4% in August). At the same point in his term, Trump had won confirmation for two: Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh. In the three months to April, the unemployment rate was 3.8%, equal to its pre-pandemic trough and slightly lower than in the three months to January. The downside news had reflected a larger than expected impact from the scaling back of Test and Trace activity in April, alongside weaker than expected market sector output growth. As of June, nearly 41 million people 40,986,375 were receiving food assistance. Intelligence from the Banks Agents contacts suggested that hiring intentions had continued to be positive and that recruitment difficulties had remained severe. Final Results for September 2022. Accessed 10 Oct 2022. FBI Releases 2020 Crime Statistics. Press release. 36: The latest output, business survey and consumer spending indicators had been mixed, and, taken together, did not suggest a materially different near-term underlying growth path to that projected in the May Report. On the corporate front, Delta Air Lines (DAL) kicked off earnings before the open. Core YoY, 6.5% for October, 5.9% for November, and 5.5% for December. Financial market infrastructure supervision, Operational resilience of the financial sector, Greening our Corporate Bond Purchase Scheme (CBPS), Money Markets Committee and UK Money Markets Code, The PRAs statutory powers and enforcement, Gross Domestic Product Real-Time Database, Option-implied probability density functions. Recommend this page using: Facebook. Exports went down 1.5% to $177.6 billion, with sales of food, feeds and beverages (-14%) and industrial supplies (-3.1%) recording the biggest decrease. If the stock breaks support at $105, there is further downside to around $92. 34: In the MPCs central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5% in three years time. The strong dollar doesnt help tech. Within this latter set of indicators, inflation compensation measures in financial markets had fallen modestly, but they had remained well above their average levels of the past decade. Prices of energy continue to have the biggest impact (up 41.9% vs 40.7% in September), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (13.1% vs 11.8%), non-energy Why corporations are reaping record profits with inflation on the rise. PBS. Deficits Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the federal deficit declined to $1.4 trillion in fiscal year 2022 down about 50% from $2.8 trillion in fiscal year 2021 and about 55% less than the $3.1 trillion deficit in fiscal year 2020. 2 Aug 2022. LinkedIn. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. As set out in the accompanying statement, the Governing Council had also concluded that the conditions, according to its forward guidance, for starting to raise the key ECB interest rates had been satisfied. The recent increase in oil prices would also push up on inflation relative to the May Report projection, by around a quarter of a percentage point. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Our baseline forecast shows CPI inflation spiking to over 8% in 2022. For Mexicans, Ruiz Soto said, the Title 42 policy has had another unintended consequence: It has encouraged migrants to make multiple attempts to cross the border, because if caught they are simply returned to Mexico without any further repercussions. In part reflecting those developments, Chinese activity data had been weaker in April than had been anticipated at the time of the May Report, and Bank staff now expected the level of GDP to be broadly flat in 2022 Q2 compared with the 0.8% quarterly growth that had been incorporated in the May Report. This year, in its report to Congress for fiscal year 2023, the State Department said we are beginning to make progress towards fulfilling President Bidens ambitious admissions target.. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. For this report, we have newly released Census Bureau figures on poverty, household income and health insurance, an FBI report on nationwide crime, and handgun production data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, among other things. It also reflected the combined impact of weaker real incomes and tighter monetary policy on domestic demand. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. The housing sector is the most sensitive to and experiences the most immediate impacts from the Federal Reserves interest rate policy changes, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a Sept. 21 press release. Nicaragua eliminates visa requirement for Cubans. 23 Nov 2021. Wall Street was watching for any hint at when and how much the central bankers will slow their rate increases. Migrant Protection Protocols. Accessed 13 Oct 2022. One major category of jobs is still lagging, however. Accessed 18 Jan 2022. Federal judge blocks Biden administration from lifting Title 42 for now. CNN. 14: Monthly GDP had fallen by 0.1% in March and by 0.3% in April, the latter weaker than expectations. Continued weakness in the property sector had weighed on fixed investment. That weakness had been broad-based across backward and forward-looking sub-balances that fed into the headline confidence indicator. We believe headline inflation will remain strong on an over-year-ago basis, but we do expect some cooling relative to recent prints, with the headline CPI up 8.1%oya in September. represents changes in the prices of all goods and services purchased for consumption by urban households. 5 Oct 2022. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. (See line 45.). The market-implied path for Bank Rate had risen materially since the MPCs previous meeting, reaching around 2.9% by end-2022 and peaking at 3.3% in 2023. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a slight deceleration to 8.1% annually and the core reading to accelerate to 6.5% from a year earlier. In raw numbers, there were about 37.9 million people below the poverty line in 2021. U.S. Department of Treasury. Regardless, the selling spree seems to have paused after a fresh start of the Asian trading session on November 10. Credit card donations may be made throughour Donate page. The payments to benefit recipients were skewed towards people on lower incomes. This reading came in higher than the market expectation of 10.1%. These members also judged that monetary policy should lean strongly against risks that recent trends in pay growth, firms pricing decisions, and inflation expectations in the economy more widely would become more firmly embedded. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 6.2% in the 12 months to February 2022, up from 5.5% to January. White House. According to contacts of the Banks Agents, growth had continued to be held back by supply chain disruptions, although companies were increasingly taking measures to alleviate the effects of these disruptions, for example by using alternative inputs and holding more stock. Inflations overshoot of the 2% target mainly reflects previous large increases in global energy and other tradable goods prices. Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey: Unemployment. Microsofts Activision Blizzard deal is key to the companys mobile gaming efforts. But since Biden took office, the S&P 500 is down 3.4% at the close of the market on Oct. 13. Thursday's session continued a murky week for investors marked by corporate earnings in addition to the inflation data. Advanced users can use our Python/R/Matlab packages. State Department. Confirming that at a time when the "data-dependent" Fed only cares about taming inflation, the CPI has become the most important driver of short-term returns, Barclays strategists plotted the S&P 500 performance against top 10 economic indicators such as monthly payrolls and quarterly GDP; they found that over the past decade never have stocks been so negatively reactive to an economic indicator as they are now to CPI. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices. Data extracted 10 Oct 2022. Table 1. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXStreet, its employees, clients or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Opinions expressed at FXStreet are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXStreet or its management. "I still think household balance sheets are in decent shape," JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist Jordan Jackson told Yahoo Finance Live on Wednesday. That also acts as a magnet, Ruiz Soto said, as migrants from those countries know there is little chance they will be returned to their home country, and instead they will be released into the U.S. pending asylum or other immigration hearings. CPI inflation was expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Although CPI inflation in April had been close to the MPCs expectations at the time of the May Report, inflationary pressures appeared to have broadened across the major components of consumer prices, including in the services sector, and other indicators of cost and price pressures had remained robust. Wed also like to use some non-essential cookies (including third-party cookies) to help us improve the site. As always, we make no judgment as to how much credit or blame any president deserves for changes that happen during his time in office. Bureau of Justice Statistics and FBI. 37: In view of continuing signs of robust cost and price pressures, including the current tightness of the labour market, and the risk that those pressures became more persistent, all members of the Committee judged that an increase in Bank Rate was warranted at this meeting. The DXY is striving for a break above the intraday hurdle of 110.40. Transcript: Remarks by President Biden on the DISCLOSE Act. 10 Sep 2022. In its most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted that gasoline prices would average $3.57 during 2023. So after all the ups and downs (mostly ups), the most recent price is $1.53 higher than in the week before Biden took office, an increase of 64.4%. Household Income Household income continued to decline in Bidens first year. Manufacturing output had also fallen, below expectations at the time of the May Report. During his first 20 months in office, the Consumer Price Index rose 13.2%. Current Judicial Vacancies, 117th Congress. 5: Developments in commodity prices had been mixed since the MPCs previous meeting. Early release figures from the NHIS show those lacking health insurance declined further in the first quarter of 2022. Timely auction data suggests that used car prices likely fell about 2.5% in September, while reduced dealer incentives suggest new car prices likely rose about 1%. After a stronger than expected employment print, and a stronger than expected PPI report today both hammered stocks sending them tumbling to fresh 2022 lows after falling for 6 consecutive days, we finally get the September CPI report, a number which as we reported previously could send stocks soaring Communication prices have been trending lower lately and we forecast a 0.1% decline for this CPI measure for September. University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. EURUSD picks up bids to refresh intraday high, reversing Wednesdays losses. The department also said that it needed to rebuild its staff after four years of cuts by the Trump administration. Poverty in the United States: 2021. Census Bureau. 8: The near-term path for market-implied policy rates in the United States and in the euro area had risen significantly since the MPCs previous meeting, reaching around 3.6% and 1.3% respectively by end-2022. Output in consumer-facing services had risen by 2.2% in April, broadly in line with expectations. National Association of Realtors. 2022 Jul. Major Cities Chiefs Association. And with winter weather approaching, the cost of home heating is going up at an alarming rate. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Adjusted for the mechanical effects of the changes in workforce composition and the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, Bank staff estimated that underlying nominal private sector regular pay growth had remained above 4%, also consistent with expectations at the time of the May Report and in excess of pre-pandemic rates of around 3 to 3%. That total is about 12.2% higher than the debt of nearly $21.64 billion when Biden took office. The organization is run by criminal justice data analysts. But the labour market remained tight and indications of broader domestic inflationary pressure required a response in order to ensure inflation returned sustainably to the target in the medium term. NEVERTHELESSa big beat in core inflation will set the market loose againand one should be prepared to re-engage in this years dominant market themes: higher US rates, stronger $, lower stocks. Prices of energy continue to have the biggest impact (up 41.9% vs 40.7% in September), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (13.1% vs 11.8%), non-energy Interest Of [Human Resources/The Treasury/Black U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Risen by 2.2 % in April, the S & P 500 is 3.4... 105, there is further downside to around $ 92 $ 105, there were about 37.9 people... Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua tighter monetary policy was also acting to ensure that longer-term inflation expectations were anchored the... The DISCLOSE Act also fallen, below expectations at the 2 % target kicked off before... 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