Poland Economic Forecasts Published monthly, Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts offers a comprehensive outlook for the Polish economy; covering 14 macroeconomic variables over a 2 year forecast horizon. Current Interest Rates. Therefore, the Bank avoided giving specific forward-looking guidance. Before the war, the end-of-year projections was 4 percent. In our base-line scenario we stick to a 50bp hike in February with upside risk, ie, 75bp hike. Trading Economics provides data for 20 million economic indicators from 196 countries including actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, historical time series and news. In comparison, the average one-year fixed rate was 5.04%, while the average two-, three-, four and five-year fixed rates were 5.56%, 5.84%, 6.05% and 6.32% respectively. In his view, there is a real danger that a period of prolonged. In its latest economic forecasts, Poland's central bank said that inflation is expected to be 3.8-4.4% in 2021 and 2.5-4.1% in . LinkedIn Open market operations are transactions in which the central bank engages with commercial banks on its own initiative. Online Store Now, with the war putting additional pressure on inflation and the Polish currency, the market is expecting a larger hike in interest rates than before. Forecasts are provided by leading economists whose individual views are shown together with the average (mean) forecast. This allows the central bank to influence the level of short-term interest rates on the interbank market. On Monday, the exchange rate briefly hit 5 zloty against the euro, setting a new record. This followed 11 consecutive meetings in which the NBP hiked rates since it began its tightening cycle in October 2021. As a result, we see average inflation in 2022 at 9.1% (in a scenario with anti-inflation shields staying till July) or, 8.1% (in case the shields are extended to the year-end); in 2023 we expect inflation to be 6.1% and 7.1%, respectively. Economic Data, Research, Advisory, Forecasting Poland Interest Rate. A long range forecast for the U.S. Treasury Rates and similar economic series is available by subscription. Key interest rates of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) as of. | Poland Interest Rate | Privacy Policy | Cookies Policy | Terms & Conditions | Sitemap | RSS feed, Poland: Manufacturing PMI falls in September, Poland: Business sentiment weakens in October, Poland: Industrial output growth slows in September, Poland: Retail sales growth picks up pace in September, Poland: Central Bank stands pat in October. This marks the first pause after a long tightening cycle that began in October 2021 to combat inflation, amid mounting growth worries. The forecast shows that by 2024 the value of interest rate will reach 2.95 percent . API users can feed a custom application. Local experts are now expecting the main interest rate to come at 4.00 percent at the end-H1 and say it could hit 4.25 percent in December. Data published Monthly by Central Bank. Interest Rate Forecast 2022/2023. Poland (red) Short-term interest rates Indicator: 7.5 Total % per annum Oct-2022 Poland % per annum: Total % per annum The official interest rate is the Reference Rate. The obligation to maintain the reserve is also an element of liquidity management at banks. Poland's economy entered the year on a strong economic footing, with real GDP expanding by 2.5% q-o-q in the first quarter. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for Poland - 3-month-interest rate - last updated from the EUROSTAT on August of 2022. Stock building was the main growth driver, as companies are gradually moving away from just-in-time production due to heightened uncertainty and global supply chain pressures. October 5, 2022. About Poland's interest rate Poland's interest rate trend is up since the current value of 0.1 is higher than the 12 month moving average of 0.1. and the 12 month moving average slope is down. By staying on it, you agree to the use of cookies. Moodys Analytics. Handmade in 1719 by Antonio Stradivari, the instrument is one of only 650 Stradivarius violins that have survived to this day. That said, higher interest rates, the fading impact of current shocks and the appreciation of the zloty should then contribute to a gradual decrease in inflation. Short-term interest rates forecast refers to projected values of three-month money market rates. (Bloomberg) -- Poland left interest rates unchanged for a second straight month and said the "significant" scale of monetary tightening to date should help rein in inflation from the fastest. , Jul 29, 2022 It can be seen that the mortgage interest rate in Poland decreased overall during the period under observation, reaching a value of 4.6 percent as of the fourth quarter of 2021.. Policy makers lifted rates by 100bps, vs forecast for 50bps, Rate rise is intended to curb inflation expectations. In the long-term, the Poland Three Month Interbank Rate is projected to trend around 6.74 percent in 2023, according to our econometric models. Standard users can export data in a easy to use web interface or using an excel add-in. Read more. I-Bond Rate is 6.89% for Next Six Months In his remarks, Powell warned against easing restrictive monetary policy too early. The latest macroeconomic forecast for Poland. The Central Bank expects the same factors to continue fueling price pressures in the coming quarters. According to a median forecast of 20 local analysts in a PAP consensus survey, Poland's Monetary Policy Council (MPC) will likely add a 50 bps interest-rate hike on Tuesday to the 265 bps in hikes passed since October, which will bring the reference rate to 3.25 percent. The NBP also kept the Lombard rate unchanged at 7.25%, the rediscount rate at 6.80% and the deposit rate at 6.20%. It is measured as a percentage. 2022 Moodys Analytics, Inc. and/or its affiliates and licensors. Join your colleagues in participating in this Stable prices are an indispensable element of constructing solid foundations for long-term economic growth. Priceless Stradivarius violin looted from Poland during WWII found in Paris, No rate hike due to global slowdown says rate-setting body, EC deputy head calls Polish talks 'step in the right direction', Monetary council puts interest rates on hold despite inflation, Governing party wants to limit immunity of MPs and judges, Foreign Ministry produces fans guide to World Cup in Qatar, Four tonnes of Nazi gold found in buried 18th century palace canister, say WWII treasure hunters, From past to present, Britains influence on Warsaws landscape reveals a longstanding architectural friendship, Dutch troops to help train Ukrainian troops in Poland and Germany. All rights reserved. Deposit Interest Rate in Poland is 6.25 % in 2022. LinkedIn Press Specifically, 13 analysts expect a 50 bps hike and seven expect bolder moves from the MPC - four analysts forecast a 75 bps hike, two players expect a 100 bps move and one analyst is betting on a 125 bps hike. Policymakers said that a further slowdown of GDP growth is forecast for the coming quarters, while the economic outlook is subject to significant uncertainty. Note: We'll be discussing the key takeaways from this report in an online session shortly after the release of September CPI at 11:00 ET/16:00 BST on Thursday, 13th October. Client Log In, Facebook Forecast data are calculated by making an overall assessment of the economic climate in individual countries and the world economy as a whole, using a combination of model-based analyses and statistical indicator models. Historically, Poland - 3-month-interest rate reached a record high of 6.85% in June of 2022 and a record low of 0.21% in August of 2021. The average variable rate could peak at around 5.54% if the cash rate rises to 3.35% and all lenders pass this on in full. Historical Data (%) by years Data Period Date Historical Chart by presidents (%) Reserve requirement a monetary policy instrument that can be used to regulate the banking sector liquidity and to mitigate volatility of short-term interest rates. In its short to medium-term Canada interest rate predictions, TD Economics projected the BoC to hike the interest rates to 3.25% in the fourth quarter and maintain the level until the end of 2023. The central bank saw three-month WIBOR interest rates at 6.2% in 2023 and 6.2% in 2024. The central bank saw three-month WIBOR interest rates at 6.2% in 2023 and 6.2% in 2024. The zloty weakened after the policy makers lifted the benchmark rate by half a percentage point to 6.5% on Thursday, defying most economists' prediction of a 75 basis-point increase. At its 5 October meeting, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept the key reference rate unchanged at 6.75%. Historical data on Take-profit.org. Poland: Central Bank stands pat in October. October 24, 2022. The size of the hike eclipsed the predictions of the 31 economists surveyed by Bloomberg and came amid mounting concerns that war in neighboring Ukraine may hurt economic growth. All news about Poland At a Glance 2022 Projected Real GDP (% Change) : 3.7 2022 Projected Consumer Prices (% Change): 8.9 Country Population: 37.802 million Date of Membership: June 12, 1986 Article IV/Country Report: February 24, 2022 Special Drawing Rights (SDR): 4226.6 million Quota (SDR): 4095.4 million Poland's Monetary Policy Council (MPC) increased the reference interest rate by 75 bps to 1.25 percent on Wednesday following a lengthy meeting. The maximum level was 24 % and minimum was 0.1 %. Poland - Interest Rate Data Sample Report The open market operations currently conducted by the National Bank of Poland consist in the issue of own-debt securities (7-day NBP money market bills), whose minimum yield equals the reference rate adopted by the Monetary Policy Council. Despite FX interventions taken by Poland's central bank and the finance ministry, the zloty has been weakening against the euro in recent days amid market uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine. Reference rate determines yield obtainable on the main open market operations, affecting at the same time, the level of short-term market interest rates. Such transactions include the conditional and outright sale or purchase of securities or foreign currency, as well as the issue of own-debt securities by the central bank. My Cart Projected interest rates in 5 years in the UK. Commenting on the Banks decision, Adam Antoniak and Rafal Benecki, economists at ING, stated: The Council rather prefers a longer period of disinflation and soft landing than a prompt return of CPI to 2.5%. Projected growth rate: 1.8%. Interest Rate Forecast 2022/2023 - was last updated on Monday, November 7, 2022. High interest rates make loans and mortgages more expensive and may subdue GDP growth as a consequence; however, Poland's central bank had been forced to embark on a series of interest rates hikes even before the war, starting in October 2021. In terms of the UK interest rate forecast for the next five years, the BoE projected the bank rate could reach 5.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, before falling to 4.7% in 2024 and 4.4%in 2025. Amid increased inflationary risk and the zloty's recent weakness, analysts are split even more on the scale of monetary policy tightening than in previous months. More news According to economic data provider Trading Economics ' interest rate predictions in Poland, the rates could rise to 8.25% by the end of 2022. Open market operations balance the demand and supply of funds held by commercial banks at the central bank. Interbank Rate in Poland is expected to be 7.74 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. We have a plan for your needs. Prime Interest Rate Forecast. Direct access to our data from your apps using any programing language. Google+, Facebook Real GDP forecast, Annual growth rate (%), 2023 37 425 US$ per capita. Retail sales expanded 21.9% year on year in September (August: +21.5% yoy). The move, which follows interest rate rises in other central European nations, including the Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania, comes as year-on-year inflation in Poland hit 5.8 per cent in. This allows the central bank to influence the level of short-term interest rates on the interbank market. Interest rate hikes will be continued through end-2022. Industrial output grew 9.8% in year-on-year terms in September, which was a deterioration from August's 10.9% increase. This site uses "cookies". The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 42.0 in October, down from 43.0 in September. At its 5 October meeting, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept the key reference rate unchanged at 6.75%. White label accounts can distribute our data. Jul 22, 2022 The National Bank of Poland (Narodowy Bank Polski - NBP) reference rate amounted to 6.5 percent in July 2022. EUR. Some analysts have pointed out that the zloty is weakening more than other currencies in the CEE region due to its liquidity, while others have underlined that the protracted crisis in Ukraine makes investors perceive the zloty as a more risky asset, owing to Poland's proximity to Ukraine. This followed 11 consecutive meetings in which the NBP hiked rates since it began its tightening cycle in October 2021. As a result, we also expect the Fed to be in position to cut interest rates again from late 2023, which should trigger a rebound in GDP growth in 2024. Deposit rate determines interest rate on deposits. On 26 August, ANZ Research forecast New Zealand's unemployment rate to rise to 3.4% in December 2022 and remain steady at that level in the first quarter of 2023. Advanced users can use our Python/R/Matlab packages. In its communiqu, the NBP stated that its decisions will remain driven by data and by the impact of the ongoing war in Ukraine on the Polish economy. Measuring between 1.3 to 1.5 metres long and 50cm in depth, the cylindrical metal canister was found in the conservatory of an 18th century palace used by Hitlers SS as a brothel. Lombard rate determines costs of funding obtainable from the NBP. NBP's Poland interest rate prediction indicated that no interest rate cuts are expected in 2023. Read more. Poland - 3 Month Interest Rate was 7.16% in September of 2022, according to the EUROSTAT. Daily from 1989. . The Polish central bank gave no indications that its ready to pause raising interest rates after lifting the benchmark to the highest level in a decade to fight surging inflation. Poland - Lending interest rate - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on October of 2022. and Consumer Credit Risk Solutions from Bloomberg Chief Washington Correspondent Joe Mathieu delivers insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including conversations with influential lawmakers and key figures in politics and policy. Lending rate is the bank rate that usually meets the short- and medium-term financing needs of the private sector. 30 Year T-Bond Yield Forecast. Between 2010 and 2024, a decrease in the value of the WIBOR 3M interest rate in Poland was observed. At its 5 October meeting, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept the key reference rate unchanged at 6.75%. According to a median forecast of 20 local analysts in a PAP consensus survey, Poland's Monetary Policy Council (MPC) will likely add a 50 bps interest-rate hike on Tuesday to the 265 bps in hikes passed since October, which will bring the reference rate to 3.25 percent. 6 Month Treasury Yield Long Range Forecast. 3 Month T-Bill Yield Forecast. This page provides forecast and historical data, charts, statistics, news and updates for Poland Business Lending Rate. Lending interest rate (%) in Poland was reported at 11.7 % in 2009, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. Twitter Poland's central bank left its main interest rate unchanged on . Interest Rate in Poland remained unchanged at 6.75 % in October 2022. Back then, rates were raised to suppress soaring inflation amid an energy crisis and global supply chain disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Poland's interest rate 5-year percentile is currently at 62.5%. Download historical data for 20 million indicators using your browser. Interest Rate Latest data on Interest Rate (%) Chart Historical Chart What is Bank of Poland Interest Rate? According to economic data provider Trading Economics ' interest rate predictions in Poland, the rates could rise to 8.25% by the end of 2022. Twitter In a shock decision, policy makers lifted the reference rate by 1 percentage point to 4.5% on Wednesday and repeated that theyll do whatever it takes to combat persistently high inflation. Poland - 3-month-interest rate was 6.85% in June of 2022, according to the EUROSTAT. Trading Economics' Poland interest rate forecast projected the rates to trend at 6% in 2023. The NBP decided to stand pat as it deemed that previous rate hikes were already limiting demand growth. Home > Countries > Poland > Interest Rate. Poland's central bank may raise interest rates on Wednesday in a potentially divisive decision that reflects the tension between persistently high inflation and mounting fears of a sharp. Poland: Retail sales growth picks up pace in September. Business confidence fell to minus 21.1 in October from September's minus 18.8, marking the worst reading since May 2020. Start working with the reports used by the worlds major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for Poland - 3 Month Interest Rate - last updated from the, Short-term interest rates: Day-to-day money rates, Short-term interest rates: three-month interbank rates, [+] Balance of payments statistics and International investment positions (BPM6), [+] Construction, building and civil engineering, [+] Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISH, [+] Human Resources in Science & Technology, [+] Information and Communication Technology (ICT), [+] Macroeconomic imbalance procedure indicators, [+] Peace, justice and strong institutions. The unemployment rate is expected to pick up to 4% in Q4 2023, rising further to 4.8% in Q1 2024. Long position overnight fee. ING expected the BoE to maintain its key rate unchanged at 3.75% from the fourth quarter of 2022 until . It allows API clients to download millions of rows of historical data, to query our real-time economic calendar, subscribe to updates and receive quotes for currencies, commodities, stocks and bonds. Annual growth rate (%) 2021 Poland (red) Net national income Indicator: 28 711 Total US dollars/capita . Business Lending Rate for Poland from National Bank of Poland for the Average MFI Interest Rates on New Business release. Retail sales expanded 21.9% year on year in September (August: +21.5% yoy). At its 5 October meeting, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept the key reference rate unchanged at 6.75%. Poland interest rate. 0.0046%. 0.9875. Given the fast hikes in developed markets and a tense geopolitical environment, the zloty is at a risk of further weakening. The next monetary meeting is scheduled for 9 November. Trading Economics members can view, download and compare data from nearly 200 countries, including more than 20 million economic indicators, exchange rates, government bond yields, stock indexes and commodity prices. Actual data on average rate that banks pay to deposit account holders in Poland. Google+, Copyright: 2022. Click here for more information or to subscribe now. Poland staged the world's first interest-rate hike this year and signaled it's ready to do more, intensifying the battle against inflation that's poised to hit . USDJPY: Elliott wave analysis and forecast for 26.08.2022 - 02.09.2022; GBPUSD: Elliott wave analysis and forecast for 26.08.2022 - 02.09.2022; Gold wants a drama . exclusive survey of global business confidence. +0.0001 +0.0101%. Polish interest rates might be increased on Tuesday by at least 50 basis points, with some economists expecting a 75-bps or even a 100-bps hike, as the Polish zloty suffers from unprecedented losses and volatility. Latest Release Oct 05, 2022 Actual 6.75% Forecast 7.00% Previous 6.75% The National Bank of Poland (NBP) Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate.. Mc-site.info Consensus Forecast panelists are still assessing the latest developments and new forecasts will be released on 11 October. This means that the target rate of 8.5% may be reached even before the year end." The next monetary meeting is scheduled for 8 June. With. That said, inflation climbed further to an over 26-year high of 17.2% in September (August: 16.1%) on increased energy tariffs and higher energy and agricultural costs mainly due to the war in Ukraine. Poland's central bank hiked its main interest rate to the highest level since 2008 on Wednesday, raising the cost of credit by 75 basis points to 6.00% as it fights levels of inflation unseen in . Poland Raises Key Rate More Than Expected to 4.5% After Inflation Surge Policy makers lifted rates by 100bps, vs forecast for 50bps Rate rise is intended to curb inflation expectations The National Bank of Poland held its benchmark reference rate at 6.75% on October 5th 2022, defying market expectations of a 25bps hike to 7%. Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commoditiesdata and analysis. . 5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators. The open market operations currently conducted by the National Bank of Poland consist in the issue of own-debt securities (7-day NBP money market bills), whose minimum yield equals the reference rate adopted by the Monetary Policy Council. The Trading Economics Application Programming Interface (API) provides direct access to our data. The National Bank of Poland's lombard rate has been raised from 1.0 percent to 1.75 percent, the rediscount rate from 0.51 percent to 1.30 percent, and the discount rate from 0.52 percent to 1.35 percent. For Poland, central bank monetary policy rates and reserve requirement rates. For all solutions offered by TD Economics predicted the Canadian central bank to lower the policy rate to 2.90% in 2024, 2.05% in 2025, 2% in 2026 and 2% in 2027. Historically, Poland - 3 Month Interest Rate reached a record high of 7.16% in September of 2022 and a record low of 0.21% in August of 2021. The NBP also kept the Lombard rate unchanged at 7.25%, the rediscount rate at 6.80% and the deposit rate at 6.20%. Latest Updates The National Bank of Poland held its benchmark reference rate at 6.75% on October 5th 2022, defying market expectations of. Mc-site.info analysts see the reference rate ending 2022 at 4.00% and 2023 at 3.60%. 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Of short-term interest rates on the interbank market September, which was a deterioration from 's! 20 million indicators using your browser element of constructing solid foundations for long-term economic growth for Next Months... Hiked rates since it began its tightening cycle that began in October 2021 of interest. Next Six Months in his remarks, Powell warned against easing restrictive monetary policy rates similar... Crisis and global supply chain disruptions caused by the worlds major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies.... 6.85 % in October 2021 indicated that no interest rate forecast 2022/2023 - was last updated on,. Markets and a tense geopolitical environment, the end-of-year projections was 4 percent to this day short- and medium-term needs. Market rates three-month WIBOR interest rates forecast refers to projected values of three-month money rates. Poland from National Bank of Poland ( NBP ) as of the reserve is also element. 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