One possibility is that environmental factors, particularly a long-lasting drought, helped ignite the crisis. the syrian agriculture minister described it as the worst in seven decades. Climate change sparked a historic drought in Syria that contributed to the long-running civil war in the country, according to new research . Scientists believe this is a contributing factor to the ongoing civil war in Syria. In previous decades, there was a strong dependence on wheat production, which was fostered by the Syrian government for the sake of economic growth and self-reliance. . Following the agricultural failures stemming from the severe drought, mass rural-urban migration ensued. Coinciding with the global food price surge in 2008, the issue of the lack of food provision was further exacerbated. Essentially, during the recent severe drought, the drying trend served to exacerbate what was a natural multi-year drought, making it the most severe in 100 years of observations. When violence erupted in Syria during the Arab Spring in 2011, the country had been mired in a three-year droughtits worst in recorded history. T he catastrophic war in Syria has been, for years now, regularly identified as partly caused by human-induced climate change. All these factors, combined with high unemployment and bad government, helped tip Syria into violence. While the drought was obviously not the fault of the regime, its past policies and lack of foresight contributed to the crumbling of one of its most viable economic sectors which led to major financial stress for millions of Syrians. In early 2011, Syria was the last of the Arab Spring countries to experience an uprising. Sheikh Ghazi Rashad Hrimis touches dried earth in the parched region of Raqqa province in eastern Syria, November 2010. In a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, my colleagues and I determined that man-made climate change increased the likelihood of a drought this severe occurring. And there will be lots of global implications. Syrian Drought 2007 - 2010 Syria Climate change intensified the most severe Syrian drought on record, forcing hundreds of thousands of Syrian farmers to move to overcrowded cities and exacerbating the conditions that led to civil war. Syria and drought Since the 1980s, Syria has undergone three distinct periods of drought. There is evidence that the 20072010 drought contributed to the conflict in Syria. As time progresses, the volume of water in stores deplete. These effects of climate change are expected to continue through 2050. Water shortages, crop-failure and displacement From 2006-2011, up to 60% of Syria's land experienced, in the terms of one expert, "the worst long-term drought and most severe set of crop failures since agricultural civilizations began in the Fertile Crescent many millennia ago." In December 2010, the Levant region in the Middle East was shaken by an uprising of protest known as the Arab Spring. Century-long observed trends in precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure, supported by . They, however, concluded that following the analyses made from observations and model simulations. A Relative extent of active and. In our paper, we have outlined connected pathways to the Syrian conflict from human interference with climate, to severe drought, to agricultural collapse and mass human migration. "That may well be true. You've probably heard the following story linking it to climate change: an intense drought, made more likely thanks to global warming, caused "mass migration" within the country from rural to urban areas, which in turn contributed to the 2011 uprising which then escalated into . The drought caused such distress to the environment and the people of Syria that it is speculated to have been the reason behind the Arab Spring that occurred in 2011. . Agriculture had made up over a fifth of Syrias pre-war GDP. Copyright 1996-2015 National Geographic SocietyCopyright 2015-2022 National Geographic Partners, LLC. The drought caused 75 percent of Syria's farms to fail and 85 percent of livestock to die between 2006 and 2011, according to the United Nations. The Syrian civil war has raged for more than six years now. So, what is its relationship to climate change? Since the 1980s, Syria has undergone three distinct periods of drought. Droughts and other natural disasters will become more severe, and by acting on our knowledge of how this global problem contributes to humanitarian issues such as conflict, we can improve resilience to the problems posed by our warming climate. But, without a peace settlement in Syria, there will only be more refugees headed to Europe. An abundance of history books tell us that civil unrest can never have a simple or unique cause. April 11, 2022 The role of drought in Syrian war was exaggerated by Lund University Fallow land extent before and during the outbreak of the Syrian civil war. Years after rural residents fleeing drought poured into Syria's cities, helping to spark a civil war, the region remains in turmoil. According to the United Nations, 75% of Syria's farms failed, and 86% of the livestock died between 2006-2011. As climate disasters grow more costly, who should pay the bill? The drought may have fueled the 2011 Syrian uprising and the war that followed, a new study suggests. That, however, has proved controversial, with other scientists arguing that there has been too little evidence to support the connection. Other paths in this landscape are the regions vulnerability to drought, which is linked to government policies promoting unsustainable agricultural practices, and the governments failure to address the suffering of a displaced population. The drought was at least partially naturally occurring, he says, but it was the most severe on record, and its severity matched trends expected to occur with rising temperatures. The agricultural system in the northeast collapsed, many farmers uprooted their families and abandoned their villages, and a mass migration of up to 1.5 million from the rural areas to the major cities in Syrias west took place. "By emphasizing regime change,US foreign policy has helped to produce this disaster," he said. " Although official figures put the unemployment rate at 8.1 percent in 2009, Syrian economists estimate it at 24.4 percent. Many causes have been proposed by commentators, including governmental corruption, economic degradation, and a lack of political freedom within Syria. All of these grievances began to fester when anti-regime protests began in early 2011. Research provides first deep look at how global warming may already influence armed conflict. Gul, 22, rests with her children at a gas station in Suri, Turkey, after fleeing violence in Syria in 2014. The authors acknowledge that many factors led to Syria's uprising, including corrupt leadership, inequality, massive population growth, and the government's inability to curb human suffering. All rights reserved. Ranked Choice Voting Emerges in More States after Midterm Elections, Arkansas Voters Reject Attack on Citizen Initiative Process, Days Before Election, Battleground Poll Finds Voters Overwhelmingly Trust American Elections. A water canal running from the Euphrates river into the semi-desert region of eastern Syria, 2010. Starting in 2006, Syria suffered its worst drought in 900 years; it ruined farms, forced as many as 1.5 million rural denizens to crowd into cities alongside Iraqi refugees and decimated the. The influence of climate change in creating the conditions for the Syrian war highlights how far reaching the problem is, and how important a role we have in reducing the emissions which cause climate change to help protect our planet and ourselves. The drought collapsed agricultural yields and livestock herds, driving as many as 1.5 million Syrians from rural areas into cities, where resources were already scarce. Under normal conditions, winds come from the west bringing moist air into this region, a necessary ingredient for rainfall. This occurred directly after the influx of one to 1.5 million refugees from the war in Iraq to these same cities. "The entire world needs to be planning for a drier future in that area. Between 2007 and. Sorry we couldnt find what you were looking for.Go home or try a search. In February of 2012 (updated in our report The Arab Spring and Climate Change in 2013) we wrote about drought and natural resource mismanagement in Syria in the past decade, the displacement of about 1.5 million Syrian farmers and herders from 2006-2011, and the role climate change may have played. The questions of what caused the Syrian Civil War and ongoing chaos we are experiencing today do not seem to be a challenge to answer. A sand tornado passes through as thousands of Kurds stream into Dikmetas, Turkey, from Syria in September 2014. In this article, InterClimate Network climate correspondent Finlay Miller explores the links between climate change, drought, and one of the most devastating conflicts of the 21st century. There is evidence that the 20072010 drought contributed to the conflict in Syria. "The situation was already bad," he said. This regime was tremendously unpopular to begin with.". Still, he understands the limits of the research. The drought had displaced Syrians long before the conflict began," said Francesco Femia, president of the Center for Climate Security. Wars, Murders to Rise Due to Global Warming. Researchers from NASA and the University of Arizona studied tree rings a reliable proxy for measuring precipitation going back several centuries andfound that the recent Syrian drought was likely the worst in at least the past 900 years and almost definitely the worst in 500 years. The dire case of Syria In the past, Syria's farmers have benefited from relatively fertile and productive lands, as well as the state's promotion of staple crop production between the 1970s and. (a) Drought affected northeastern Syria (as well as adjacent regions in Turkey and Iraq) from 2006 to 2011 . The Syrian civil war (Arabic: , romanized: al-arb al-ahlyah as-sryah) is an ongoing multi-sided civil war in Syria fought between the Syrian Arab Republic led by Syrian president Bashar al-Assad (supported by domestic and foreign allies) and various domestic . How Climate Change Warmed Syria Up for War Drought allegedly caused by global warming helped create conflict - 'So this is our mess too. Visiting Scholar in Department of Geography , University of California Santa Barbara, Colin Kelley received funding from the following grants: Abeer Etefa, a communications officer with the United Nation's World Food Program, said the agency was concerned about the country prior to the outbreak of war. In 2006, Syria began suffering through its worst drought in over nine decades. The researchers conclude that the drought worsened . Climate change is occurring in Syria by means of depleting water supply and advancing desertification, both of which are closely linked. This recent drought was likely made worse by human-induced climate change and such persistent, deep droughts are projected to become more commonplace in a warming world. In 2010, the overall poverty rate was 34.3%, while the poverty rate in rural areas was about 62%. We found that there are differences between the patterns of a typical dry year, and the pattern associated with the observed drying trend. Climate change brought about a record drought in Syria from 2006 to 2010, which was probably caused by human-induced climate change. However, one factor has been underexplored: the argument that anthropogenic climate change, by inducing drought across Syria and the Middle East in the runup to the war, was a crucial condition which allowed the conflict to break out. Syria's drought started in 2007 and continued until at least 2010 -- and perhaps longer. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Senior Curator - Monash University Museum of Art | MUMA, Associate Lecturer in Optometry & Vision Sciences, Human Resource Management Open Rank (Tenure-Track), Senior Research Fellow, Environmental Biogeochemistry. . The United Nations said in March that Syria saw 2021 the worst drought in more than 70 years, affecting access to drinking water, electricity generation, and irrigation water for millions of people. The focus of the conflict is regime change, but the triggers include a broad set of religious and sociopolitical factors, the erosion of the economic health of the country, a wave of political reform sweeping over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Levant region, and . A Refugee Crisis of Their Own Syria, a country of just over 22 million people, has been faced with more than just drought, but a refugee crisis of their own. He did not participate in the new study. Syrian drought, exacerbated by human-related activities, seems to have contributed to trigger the conflict that is putting the country on its knees and is causing millions of refugees. The water crisis decimated the country's wheat harvest, with production down from 2.8 million tons in 2020 to just 1.05 million tons in 2021, it added. "Then we looked at the fact that there had been this warming trend and drying trend, which takes moisture out of the soils at the same time," Seager says. Climate change played a role in the Syrian uprising, according to a new study. VICE News is closely tracking global environmental change. Power of resilience in Oregons high desert, This trail may be the best way to see New Englands fall colors, Photograph by John Stanmeyer, National Geographic. Syria may have fallen into its vicious civil war due, in part, to a drought caused by climate change in what scientists say is strongest connection between violence and human-caused climate change The drought from 2006-2010 was the worst ever recorded in northeast Syria, driving thousands of farmers away from their homes and towards crowded cities. There are two problems here. By Michael Casey. Significance. This drought combined with the mismanagement of natural resources by [Syrian President Bashar] Assad, who subsidized water-intensive crops like wheat and cotton farming and promoted bad. Previous research supports the idea that rapid demographic change breeds instability. Credit: Public Domain While scientists acknowledge that many factors contributed to the conflict in Syria, a new study documents how mass migration influenced by climate change appears to have played a role. The drought caused 75 percent of Syria's farms to fail and 85 percent of livestock to die between 2006 and 2011, according to the United Nations. But, Seager says, that's not how events unfolded. Heres where travelers can see the work in action. In Syria, a civil war emerged which has lasted for over ten years, resulting in an estimated 400,000 deaths. Lack of rain and poor management of land and water caused the most severe drought in Syria in 100 years and led to a mass migration to cities that contributed to country's civil war. Dikmetas, Turkey, after fleeing violence in Syria has undergone three distinct periods of drought and war! 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