PopulationPyramid.net Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100 WORLD 2030 Population: 8,548,487,371 Download - Excel CSV - Sources Year -5 -1 2030 +1 +5 Country A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z Western Africa Western Asia Western Europe Western Sahara WORLD New: Updated with 2019 numbers Check our other visualizations The current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, according to a new United Nations report being launched today. Due to the siphonage phenomenon, the urban agglomeration regions constantly attract populations from other undeveloped provinces, such as the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta regions59,60. DemRes 28, 505546 (2013). The population projection data of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST) are available from the website at https://geography.nuist.edu.cn/2019/1113/c1954a147560/page.htm. Sci. Am. According to the results of regression models, the rate of population changes and the number of migrations people play a significant role in projection accuracy. montserrat population 2022mangalorean crab gassi. 2b), yet some provinces' population reduction from 2010 already (Fig. Third section describes the methods of measuring population projection quality. 3 (3, 12, 14, 18, 25, 29)). The third pattern is that the actual population remains to increase, but both THU and NUIST overestimate the tendency. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division 61 (2019). & Diamond, J. Chinas environment in a globalizing world. 27, 1742 (2008). We use the expenditure of maternity insurance and hospitals' quantity to reflect government attitudes to population control. Sustainability (Switzerland) 11, 118 (2019). For instance, in the northeast provinces with low fertility rates, the THU's projection errors are higher than NUIST. most popular beer in saskatchewan. & Swanson, D. A. By 2011, the PRC's economy was the second largest in the world. However, considering the actual TFR does not realize the high level as THU, NUIST, and UN projected in the validation years, the population may reach a peak earlier than these datasets projected. The most comprehensive solution to manage all your complex and ever-expanding tax and compliance needs. All quotes delayed a minimum of 15 minutes. 2b), most projections show an approximatively linear growth trend, and they do not foresee the inflection point arising prematurely in 2017. The fourth pattern is that the THU and NUIST underestimate the actual growth population. Popul. Negative population growth is expected to emerge due to a fall in the number of young and working-age people, bringing with it problems for an economy that has long relied on so-called demographic dividends to underpin growth. The projection of THU is the closest to the actual population curve from 2010 to 2017, but it overestimates the population after 2017 as well. Stat. 5. Finally, we discuss the different fertility values between the actual condition and projection set and provide suggestions for further population projection models. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6820 (2020). Res. In summary, the projection accuracy loss of NUIST, NIES, IIASA, and SEDAC is caused by the negative errors, and the THU, IHME, CEPAM, WCDE, and UN are own to positive errors. Population ageing and the impacts of the universal two-child policy on Chinas socio-economy. Li, X., Zhou, Y., Eom, J., Yu, S. & Asrar, G. R. Projecting global urban area growth through 2100 based on historical time series data and future shared socioeconomic pathways. Inversely, the projection of UN is the worst among these datasets. Impacts and socioeconomic exposures of global extreme precipitation events in 1.5 and 2.0 C warmer climates. The UN offers the maximum TFR of 1.620, and IHME provides the minimum TFR of 1.220. Recycl. Popul. The closer \(\lambda\) is to 1, the more similar the explanatory variables in neighboring places. We named them according to publishers' institutions or organizations' abbreviations. Yceahin, M. M. & Samir, K. C. Demographic and human capital heterogeneity in selected provinces of Turkey: a scenario analysis using multi-dimensional population projection model. Global risk of deadly heat. Use the Previous and Next buttons to navigate three slides at a time, or the slide dot buttons at the end to jump three slides at a time. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. And over time, the unintended and ongoing effects of population control will be extremely impactful on China's future. Furthermore, four impact factors are related to NUIST's MAPE, including the mortality rate, rural sex ratio, number of the first child, and number of abortions. This may be an effect of the one-child policy. 9, 1523 (2013). The data of Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer (WCDE) are obtained from http://dataexplorer.wittgensteincentre.org/wcde-v2. Earth Syst. Acad. IPCC. \(P\) is the population projection datasets, \(A\) is the actual population data. Nat. Moreover, the annual population change rates and the migration population significantly influence the projection accuracy. Published by C. Textor , Dec 7, 2021 As of 2020, the bulk of the Chinese population was aged between 25 and 59 years, amounting to more than half of the population. PubMed Central Country Name Population in 2030 Difference with 2022; India: 1,469,603,953: 187,668,042 people: Europe: 568,641,409: 53,588,631 people: United States: 342,820,645 Space Place 24, e2129 (2018). Nat. Population Pyramids: Less developed regions, excluding China - 2030 Mailing List - See more PopulationPyramid.net Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100 Nine datasets are compared with the actual population from 2010 to 2020 at the country scale. Demography 9, 473489 (2017). Then create a formula by clicking*100/ from the key pad. Popul. Chi, G. & Zhu, J. Spatial regression models for demographic analysis. United Nations. Projected increases in magnitude and socioeconomic exposure of global droughts in 1.5 C and 2 C warmer climates. Sustainability 12, 6803 (2020). When the difference is positive, the NUIST projection is more inaccurate than the THU projection. These trends can only make for serious economic headwinds, presaging the end of Chinas era of heroic economic growth.. When analyzing the impact factors of MALPE, it is necessary to consider the positive or negative of values. Total: 8,548,487,371. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100. ; Software, K.D. A comparison of official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales. Fertility is significant in population projection. For China, the present TFR is lower than the replacement-level fertility, which means the new generations will be seriously less than the aged population in the future. These errors are likely because the government policies boost economic development and attract more population inflow. Besides, the southeast coastal provinces and southwest provinces own the negative MALPE, denoting their population are underestimated. Total population reaches its peak in 2022 at 1,425,925,384. However, these projections datasets do not anticipate the turning point of China's population growth coming so early and population reduction so sharply for some provinces. Moreover, the growing population has a critical influence on achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), such as urban expansion control (SDG 11.3.1) and education equality (SDG 4.6.1)11. Another five datasets only project total population change at the national scale. Huang, J. et al. Lancet 396, 12851306 (2020). The THU and NUIST up-regulate the projected TFR of 2020 and 2030, because they think the loosened governmental birth control policies will facilitate birth effectively. In the SEM, mutual effects are assumed for neighboring districts' same explanatory variables, and the dependent variables have no spatial correlations. The population of China will peak in 2031, but the US will not peak until 2100. There are two reasons for this. To obtain As a result, several researchers have created spatially explicit population projections at a small scale. Nat. A Practitioners Guide to State and Local Population Projections (Springer, 2013). (2020). Additionally, the middle pathway is the most similar to the present world's future trajectory33,34. We want to thank the high-performance computing support from the Center for Geodata and Analysis, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University [https://gda.bnu.edu.cn/]. Reuters, the news and media division of Thomson Reuters, is the worlds largest multimedia news provider, reaching billions of people worldwide every day. Policy Rev. Due to there are only eleven years intervals of validation data as samples, it could not support the attribution analysis at the country scale. As Table 4 shows, the net migration values are assumed unchanged for a time in some projections. Moreover, in southeast China such as Guangdong and Zhejiang province, both projections are lower than the actual values, which may be caused by their flourishing economic activities attracting plenty of population inflow55. Popul. Many scholars and organizations have published projections for China's future population due to its substantial population amounts. According to the Fig. This is not to invoke the demography is destiny claim, often attributed to the 19th-century French polymath Auguste Comte. Zhang, D., Huang, Q., He, C. & Wu, J. Impacts of urban expansion on ecosystem services in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, China: a scenario analysis based on the shared socioeconomic pathways. The unpredictable population reduction may be ascribed to these models underrate the population outflow intensity in northeast China. Sci. These national-scale projections could reveal the general population growth tendency and serve as inputs for addressing natural and socioeconomic issues. The world's most populous country saw 5.38% more people in the last decade, to 1.41 billion, according to the results of a nationwide census released on Tuesday. According to study results, these projections provide various population growth situations at the country and province scale, but most of them cannot show the deceleration of population growth after 2017. The vertical axis is the population number (unit: billion), and the horizontal axis represents the years. The IHME thinks the population will reach the peak in 2024 as the fastest growth among projections. "The era of zero or even negative population growth is gradually approaching," said Zhai Zhenwu, a professor at the China Population and Development Research Center. The slowing of China's total population development starts from 2017 (Fig. Proc. China missed a goal to increase its population to about 1.42 billion by 2020, by a small margin. However, the national data cannot reflect the spatial heterogeneity of population distribution and is insufficient to support policy decision-making at local scales. According to the Fig. About 75% of the Chinese population will be living in cities by 2030, up from the current 64%, according to Lu Ming, an economics professor at the Shanghai Jiao Tong University specializing in. PubMedGoogle Scholar. According to the Statistical Bureau of Japan, the population of Japan as of May 2022 is at 125.05 million, including foreign residents. Moreover, the proportion of the population aged 15 to 64 also significantly impacts the projection accuracy. Google Scholar. The actual demographical data are available from the National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China (http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/pcsj/rkpc/6rp/indexch.htm). Carousel with three slides shown at a time. Clulas en Alianza > Uncategorized > 2016 world population. Main Data of the Seventh National Population Census. Google Scholar. Steffen, W. et al. For the spatial resolution, four datasets provide spatially explicit population distribution, including THU, NUIST, NIES, and SEDAC. The SEM could discover the spatial autocorrelation of variables, allowing us to explore deeper spatial associations that the ordinary linear regression model cannot reveal48,49. 101, E1464E1474 (2020). Chinas population is on track to peak in the coming decade and to decline at an accelerating tempo thereafter. In this period, the projections of UN, IHME, WCDE, and CEPAM are higher than the actual population. In southwest China, the projections seriously underrate the population of Chongqing, Sichuan, and Xizang. Sources - What is a population pyramid? Hausfather, Z. For example, five datasets provide the population from 2010 to 2100, including THU, NUIST, SEDAC, IIASA, CEPAM. [3] China conducted its sixth national population census in 2010, [4] [5] and its seventh census was completed in late 2020, with data released in May 2021. Conceptualization,S.S. and C.C. 04 Off-grid lighting for the 30 June 2010 Base of the Pyramid Off-grid lighting for the 05 Base of the Pyramid 30 June 2010 Contents Authors 2 List of Figures 6 List of . According to the equations, a positive MALPE indicates that the projection is greater than the actual values and a negative MALPE means that the population projection is less than the actual values. montserrat population 2022 By Nov 5, 2022 . Click to visit. We collect thirty demographic indicators of 31 provinces of China reflecting the population information to support the regression of SEM, as Table 2 shows. Additionally, China's actual population at the country and province scale from 2010 to 2020 is derived from China's Statistical Yearbook. While building the population projection models, scholars should combine the influence of society and the environment. Daedalus 143, 2638 (2014). The current population of China in 2022 is 1,425,887,337, a 0% increase from 2021. In this study, we calculate these projection error indicators at the country and province scales. 3 (1, 2, 9)). The NIES, IIASA, SEDAC, and NUIST are lower than the truth, but the NUIST approaches the actual value gradually from 2015. Park, Y. Its population pyramid has a wide base at the bottom between 1935 and 1985, while, after the year 1985, the pyramid began to narrow toward to the top, indicating a transition from a high fertility rate to a low fertility rate. Dai, K., Shen, S. & Cheng, C. Evaluation and analysis of the projected population of China. (Worldbank.org, 2019). For example, Scovronick et al. The purple color indicates that the THU projected population is more accurate than the NUIST projected population. Sci. Trajectories of the earth system in the anthropocene. Earths Future 8, 113 (2020). These indicators are calculated as follows: In the above equations, \(t\) is a year from 2010 to 2020, \(n\) is 11years. 0 . analyzed the impact of population growth on world climate change policies based on the UN future population projection dataset15. Projection accuracy is the absolute difference between projected and actual values, and it expresses the degree of error deviation43,44. The population of people over 60 years old in China is projected to reach 28% by 2040, due to longer life expectancy and declining fertility rates. Seriously underrate the population of Chongqing, Sichuan, china population pyramid 2030 SEDAC 2019 ) study, we the. Population control its substantial population amounts actual population remains to increase its population to 1.42..., NUIST, NIES, and the horizontal axis represents the years provinces own the negative MALPE, it necessary... & Zhu, J. spatial regression models for demographic analysis example, five datasets provide spatially population! 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